Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered resumed earnings growth and margin expansion: revenue $1.63B (+1% YoY), diluted EPS $4.79 (+3% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $545M (+8% YoY), with gross margin steady at 30% and Adj. EBITDA margin ~33% .
Aggregates led performance: shipments +2.7% to 47.9Mt, ASP +8.6% to $21.95, gross profit/ton +12% to $7.92; cement/ready-mix declined on the South Texas divestiture; Magnesia posted record Q4 revenue .
FY2025 guidance introduced: revenues $6.83–$7.23B, Adjusted EBITDA $2.15–$2.35B (midpoint +9% YoY), tax rate 20.5–21.5%, capex $725–$775M; aggregates volume +2.5–5.5% and ASP +5.5–7.5% expected, supported by infrastructure and data-center demand .
Management highlighted constructive public funding (IIJA with ~70% of highway/bridge funds yet to be invested) and accelerating AI/data-center builds as 2025 catalysts; pricing cadence to favor Q2/Q3 as many ready-mix/cement increases shift to April 1 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Aggregates strength: record Q4 gross profit/ton ($7.92) and margin (33%); pricing gains and lower diesel offset inventory management headwinds and softer private demand .
- Portfolio optimization: ~$6B of 2024 acquisitions/divestitures reshaped the portfolio toward aggregates, boosting margin durability; bolt-ons in SW Florida, Southern California, and West Texas closed in Q4 .
- Strategic demand drivers: Infrastructure and AI/data centers expected to offset residential softness; CEO: “confident in achieving the midpoint of our 2025…Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.25 billion” . “AI continues to drive unprecedented demand... Microsoft expects to invest $80 billion... Stargate… up to $500 billion” .
What Went Wrong
- Downstream softness: Cement and ready-mix revenue -24% to $261M and gross profit -36% to $68M, primarily from the Feb-2024 South Texas divestiture and market softness .
- Private end-markets: Ongoing softness in residential and warehouse/manufacturing weighed on mix; management not assuming notable residential recovery in 2025 under higher-for-longer rates .
- Inventory workdown: Temporary P&L headwinds (~$20M in Q4) from inventory reduction linger into 1H25 before abating, impacting early-year unit profitability cadence .

Financial Results

Headline results vs prior periods and estimates

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Vs Estimates
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.608	$1.889	$1.632	N/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)
Diluted EPS - Continuing Ops ($)	$4.63	$5.91	$4.79	N/A (S&P Global consensus unavailable)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$484	$599	$489	—
Gross Margin (%)	30%	32%	30%	—
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$503	$646	$545	—
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	31.3% (503/1608)	34.2% (646/1889)	33.4% (545/1632)	—

Segment / product-line breakdown

Segment	Q4 2023 Revenue ($M)	Q3 2024 Revenue ($M)	Q4 2024 Revenue ($M)	Q4 2023 GP ($M)	Q3 2024 GP ($M)	Q4 2024 GP ($M)	Q4 2023 GM%	Q3 2024 GM%	Q4 2024 GM%
Aggregates	1,022	1,250	1,137	329	438	379	32%	35%	33%
Cement & Ready-Mix	343	296	261	105	89	68	31%	30%	26%
Asphalt & Paving	228	343	223	27	61	25	12%	18%	11%
Magnesia Specialties	76	82	77	23	29	22	30%	35%	29%

Operating KPIs

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Aggregates Shipments (Mt)	46.6	53.7	47.9
Aggregates ASP ($/ton)	20.22	21.52	21.95
Aggregates GP/ton ($/ton)	7.04	8.16	7.92
Cement Shipments (Mt)	0.9	0.6	0.5
Ready-Mix Shipments (Mm³ yds)	1.5	1.3	1.2
Asphalt Shipments (Mt)	2.4	3.6	2.2

Cash flow and balance highlights (context)

Q4 operating cash flow $685M (+23% YoY) aided by working capital and deferred tax relief; year-end cash $670M, $1.2B unused revolver capacity .
Net debt/EBITDA ~2.3x at 2024 year-end (target 2.0–2.5x) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenues	FY2025	—	$6.83B–$7.23B	New
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	—	$2.15B–$2.35B (midpoint $2.25B)	New
Net Earnings (Cont. Ops)	FY2025	—	$1.005B–$1.175B	New
Capital Expenditures	FY2025	—	$725M–$775M	New
Interest Expense	FY2025	—	$220M–$230M	New
Estimated Tax Rate	FY2025	—	20.5%–21.5%	New
Aggregates Volume Growth	FY2025	—	+2.5% to +5.5%	New
Aggregates ASP Growth	FY2025	—	+5.5% to +7.5%	New
Aggregates GP	FY2025	—	$1.61B–$1.71B	New
Cement/RMC/Asphalt GP	FY2025	—	$305M–$385M	New
Magnesia GP	FY2025	—	$110M–$120M	New

Note: FY2025 guidance was first issued with Q4 2024; no prior FY2025 guidance to compare. Management reiterated guidance assumes no tariff impacts in 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (prior)	Q3 2024 (prior)	Q4 2024 (current)	Trend
Pricing & Unit Margins	Record Q2 aggregates GP/ton, broad pricing strength; revised FY24 guidance	Record Q3 aggregates GP/ton; pricing offset severe weather; FY24 guidance revised	Aggregates GP/ton +12% YoY; pricing cadence to favor April and mid-years likely at acquired sites	Pricing durable; cadence shifts to Q2/Q3
Weather Impact	Historic precipitation in TX/Central; inefficiencies	Tropical storms/hurricanes hit Q3; mix/volume hit	Better in Q4; inventory workdown P&L impact (~$20M) noted	Headwinds easing; inventory headwind abates by mid-2025
Infrastructure	IIJA tailwind; long-term support	IIJA and state spend supportive	“~70% of IIJA highway/bridge funds remain”; robust TxDOT/NCDOT budgets	Strengthening multi-year tailwind
AI/Data Centers	Noted macro opportunity	Expect benefit over time	AI/data centers “unprecedented demand”; Microsoft $80B FY25; “Stargate” up to $500B; projects in TX/NC	Accelerating activity
Private Construction	Rate-driven softness; housing underbuilt	Wet weather + softer warehouse/resi	Plan assumes no notable resi recovery in 2025; green shoots in warehousing	Cautious near term
Tariffs/Supply Chain	—	—	Guide assumes no tariff impact; domestic supply chain a buffer; tariffs could aid Magnesia and North TX cement	Neutral to potential positive
M&A/Portfolio	Closed BWI; focus on aggregates	Bolt-ons in FL/SoCal; revised guidance	3 bolt-ons in Q4; healthy pipeline; buybacks > debt reduction	Continues; capital returns steady

Management Commentary

“We… concluded the year with a return to earnings growth and margin expansion, resulting in record fourth quarter profits.”
“Strategic actions… combined with strong infrastructure and data center demand, should more than offset ongoing softness in residential… we are confident in achieving the midpoint of our 2025… Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.25 billion.”
“AI continues to drive unprecedented demand for digital and energy infrastructure… Microsoft expects to invest $80 billion… Stargate… up to $500 billion.”
“We achieved record fourth quarter cash flows from operations of $685 million, an increase of 23% … driven by working capital and deferred income tax payments” .
On pricing cadence: “Don’t expect the same degree of pop in Q1… you’ll start seeing it building in 2 and 3… the guide does not assume mid-years, but we believe there will be degrees of mid-years.”

Q&A Highlights

Guidance framework: Management characterized FY2025 guidance as measured/conservative given policy uncertainty; volume mid-single-digit growth inclusive of acquisitions, pricing +~6.5% midpoint; expect margin expansion with moderating inflation .
Pricing cadence: More muted Q1 with larger increases into Q2/Q3 as many cement/ready-mix moves shift to April 1; mid-year increases likely in acquired markets but not assumed in guidance .
Cost and inventory headwinds: Broad cost buckets “in the green”; inventory reduction created ~$20M Q4 P&L headwind and should abate after 1H25 .
Public funding: No evidence of choppiness; robust TxDOT lettings (~$13.5B), NC budget up (sales tax share), strong Georgia flows; IIJA funds still to be deployed .
Capital allocation: Net leverage ~2.3x with runway for M&A; buybacks expected to outstrip any debt reduction in 2025 .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS, revenue and EBITDA was unavailable due to data access limits at the time of analysis; as such, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus for this quarter. One analyst on the call congratulated management “on the Q4 beat,” but no numeric consensus comparison was disclosed on the call .
Where estimates may adjust: The issuance of FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $2.25B (+9% YoY) and aggregates volume/ASP growth could lead to upward revisions to 2025 profitability and unit margin assumptions, with pricing cadence shifting into Q2/Q3 and mid-years possible in acquired markets .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Aggregates-led model is compounding: price discipline, unit profit records, and portfolio mix shift toward aggregates support durable margin expansion through cycles .
2025 guide underpinned by public works and AI/data-center demand; execution catalysts include state DOT spend (TX/NC/GA) and visible hyperscale projects in core markets .
Expect earnings cadence skewed to 2H (as usual), with 1H tempered by inventory workdown and April price timing; monitor Q2/Q3 realization vs guide .
Downstream remains a headwind post-divestiture; North Texas cement remains strategically advantaged while ready-mix margins are a shock absorber amid higher input costs .
Capital deployment optionality intact at ~2.3x leverage; active M&A pipeline plus continued buybacks provide multi-pronged TSR drivers .
Watch for mid-year price actions (not baked into guide) especially in acquired footprints, and for any tariff policy that could benefit Magnesia or Texas cement positioning .
Weather normalization vs 2024 creates easier comps in several divisions; combined with pricing and cost moderation, sets the stage for further unit margin gains in 2025 .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

Q4 operating cash flow: $685M (+23% YoY) .
Year-end liquidity: $670M cash; $1.2B revolver capacity .
Dividend per share in Q4: $0.79 .
FY2024 (continuing ops): revenue $6.54B; Adjusted EBITDA $2.07B; diluted EPS $32.41 (includes $14.49/sh nonrecurring divestiture gain) .

All figures are from company filings and earnings materials as cited above.

MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC (MLM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary